Retail
October 21 2026
According to Simon-Kucher’s eighth annual holiday shopping study, American consumers plan to trim their seasonal spending by 5.5 percent this year to an average of $1,018, returning to 2024 levels amid growing household financial pressures. Budgets are shrinking due to inflation and high fuel costs. Industry experts note that any retail revenue growth will likely come from higher prices rather
Corner of Fifth
According to Simon-Kucher’s eighth annual holiday shopping study, American consumers plan to trim their seasonal spending by 5.5 percent this year to an average of $1,018, returning to 2024 levels amid growing household financial pressures. Budgets are shrinking due to inflation and high fuel costs.
Industry experts note that any retail revenue growth will likely come from higher prices rather than increased purchase volume. Shikha Jain, partner and head of consumer North America at Simon-Kucher, explained that holiday budgets are being reset rather than abandoned. Consumers increasingly choose between record debt and everyday essentials while shopping earlier and cutting back on discretionary purchases.
How Should Retailers Win Value-Focused Shoppers?
To capture consumer dollars, successful retailers must look beyond conventional discounting strategies and understand how and where shoppers make choices. Deep discounts of 40 percent have largely passed. Shoppers now often accept modest savings between 15 and 25 percent as they scrutinize promotions more carefully.
Trust in advertised discounts has dropped significantly from previous years, pushing brands to move beyond product assortment and pricing to offer alternative value through superior service and loyalty programs.
How Are AI And Tiktok Shop Changing Gift Shopping?
Emerging technologies are also reshaping the seasonal gift-buying journey by altering how consumers find deals and interact with brands. Artificial intelligence increasingly serves as a shopping assistant for product comparisons and value hunting, while platforms like TikTok Shop and live commerce drive rapid seasonal inspiration and direct-to-consumer conversion through real-time product demonstrations.
The study highlights that retailers that adapt to these shifting digital touchpoints while catering to consumers determined to maintain holiday traditions will win the upcoming season.
Related Street Talk podcast episode: Ep. #029: ‘Is the American Dream Still Alive?’ — Shikha Jain, Simon-Kucher
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